I’ve been thinking a lot lately about Barack Obama’s impact on downballot races across the country, particularly after Republican Greg Davis’ thinly veiled race-baiting campaign ended up creating an African-American backlash that handed Mississippi’s 1st district to Travis Childers last Tuesday. Davis figured that polarizing the district along racial lines would be a winning formula, considering that MS-01 is “only” 27% black. He learned a costly lesson.
The New York Times piece I linked above quotes an Atlanta-based political scientist who predicts that, with Obama at the top of the ticket, we’ll see “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States”. I have little reason to doubt it. Indeed, there are clear signs that the Obama campaign is going to do everything it can to ramp up African-American voter registration and turnout this fall, even in deeply red Southern states.
So where might we see the biggest impact of this energized African-American electorate (the most loyal of all Democratic constituencies) down the ballot? Let’s start by taking a look at the GOP-held House districts with a black population greater than 20%. (All numbers are from 2005, courtesy of Tech Politics.)
| Incumbent | District | Black Pop. |
|---|---|---|
| Chip Pickering | MS-03 | 33.9% |
| Jim McCrery | LA-04 | 33.6% |
| Rodney Alexander | LA-05 | 32.9% |
| Randy Forbes | VA-04 | 31.9% |
| Mike Rogers | AL-03 | 31.4% |
| Phil Gingrey | GA-11 | 30.9% |
| Terry Everett | AL-02 | 29.8% |
| Steve Chabot | OH-01 | 28.4% |
| Robin Hayes | NC-08 | 28.1% |
| Jo Bonner | AL-01 | 28.0% |
| Joe Wilson | SC-02 | 26.7% |
| Charles Boustany | LA-07 | 25.2% |
| Virgil Goode | VA-05 | 22.5% |
| Patrick Tiberi | OH-12 | 21.6% |
| Thelma Drake | VA-02 | 21.5% |
| Jack Kingston | GA-01 | 21.4% |
| Henry Brown | SC-01 | 21.1% |
| Ted Poe | TX-02 | 20.5% |
Retiring incumbents are in italics.
Now, I’m not suggesting that Obama is going to give magical coattails that will allow all downballot Dems to win in these tough districts, but his candidacy does create a unique dynamic of sky-high African-American turnout that should be a net plus for most Democratic challengers in these seats.
We’ve got strong candidates waging credible campaigns in a number of these districts, particularly in LA-04 (Paul Carmouche), AL-02 (Bobby Bright), and OH-01 (Steve Driehaus). We also have some surprisingly well-funded challengers emerging in the two South Carolina districts — Linda Ketner in SC-01 and Rob Miller in SC-02. These are tough districts for any Democrat to win, but it sure looks like they picked the right year to try.
After Childers’ win, I’m starting to wonder if former Rep. Ronnie Shows is regretting his decision not to run for the open seat that Chip Pickering is leaving behind.
Update: SSP’s DavidNYC has an excellent post on DailyKos analyzing Obama’s chances in Mississippi.
Is there anyway we can do a candidate flip at this point?
BECAUSE YES I WOULD WANT SHOWS RUNNING IN MS-3 RIGHT NOW!
I’m hearing good things about our AL-03 candidate this time, maybe lightning will strike. Filing is still open in LA-5 and LA-7. I wonder if Chris John could be drafted to return to Congress in LA-7.
Oh yeah, and win over any Georgia Republican, no matter how many times our candidate goes against the party, would be so freaking sweet. Every one of the Georgia Republicans is like a Tom DeLay clone, annoyances.
He had a great fundraising 1st quarter, he’s running a smart campaign and the district is not nearly as Republican as AL-02. He’s facing an incumbent, but not a strong one.
right?
“Davis figured that polarizing the district along racial lines would be a winning formula,”
Davis did? Because last I looked it was the Democrats who came out with a last minute lie trying to make Davis look like some supporter of the KKK to try and heat up racial tenstions and help Childers win. Pathetic Democrats would have to stoop so low.
haven’t heard a thing about them, though I definetly saw the Davis commerical attacking Obama and his pastor.
The most obvious likely pick-up here is Larry Kissell in NC 08. The district is 9th on your list, and Kissell lost by less than 400 votes in ’06. I’ve no idea of the percentage of black votes he received, but with Obama on the ballot Larry’s totals should spike upward substantially. This really should be a fairly easy district to flip. Kissell has been running a grass-roots campaign ever since the ’06 campaign, and by all accounts has been pretty successful so far.
Yes, it’s true that Hayes won’t again be caught off guard. And, yes, Hayes is one of the wealthiest members of Congress. But this race classifies as low-hanging fruit! It is NOT a long shot! Kissell does have DCCC support, and a number of us have been supporting him for more than a year.
Larry Kissell deserves our support. NC 08 is within easily within reach of adding to the Dem side!
Daily Kos has an excellent post today about how Obama could win Mississippi this fall.
Here is the MS Presidential vote from 2004. As you can see the state is essentially all white and black.
Vote Bush Kerry
White (65%) 85% 14%
Black (34%) 10% 90%
Total 59% 40%
And here is what Obama would need to win MS in 2008. A boost in black turnout from 34 to 40% of voters is entirely plausible considering the black population is increasing at a much faster rate than the white population. It’s also plausible that Obama could take 95% of the black vote. However taking 20% of the white vote is a BIG stretch.
Vote McCain Obama
White (60%) 80% 20%
Black (40%) 5% 95%
Total 50% 50%
thought to run a black candidate in any of these districts, it might help counter the oft-made argument that Democrats take black votes for granted. The only black representative from a majority-white district is Keith Ellison of Minnesota. We would get better turnout among black voters if we ran a black candidate in a non-majority-black district once in a while.
NC-08, VA-05 and VA-02 are all places that increased black turnout could help us win. Kissell almost won in 06 and both Virgina districts have impressive candidates running and are very winnable.
Also the first three you mentioned could be pickups.
This could be a landslide if we play it right.
It’s hard to believe we have a black candidate who gets always elected to a conservative leaning Georgia district quite easily.
The Democratic Attorney General of Georgia Thurbert Baker is also black and has been elected and re-elected easily to three terms. How he manages that I have no idea.
is a tough district. Altho it is 31.9 black, Randy Forbes won in ’06 by >75%–apparently with no Dem opponent.
for the information! How many seats short of a majority in the statehouse are Dems? That is, how many seats do they need to pick up in order to have majorities in both House and Senate?
I’m absolutely convinced that VA is right on the edge of shifting back to the blue side of the spectrum. With 2 Dem senators, a Dem gov, and NOVA seemingly growing to infinity, there’s no reason that VA can’t be nudged into the Dem column at the presidential level on a reliable basis.
And obviously it would be extremely helpful to redistrict in a more advantageous way. I for one am willing to
support statehouse candidates to make this happen. Since 2009 is an off year and financial pressure to support US House and Senate candidates will be off, I assume others are as well.
Finally, what chance do you think that Judy Feder has against Wolf in VA 10? She and her husband are old pals of mine from grad school. But with so many candidates with realistic chances of flipping a seat to the Dem side, I’m reluctant to donate unless she has a real shot at winning.
Many thanks!
More thanks. Picking up 5 statewide seats sounds a bit tough, but I’ve no idea of the situation there.
I’m sorry to hear about Kaine. Altho I watch the Post, I confess that I don’t follow VA politics, or at least not until election time. What is a good VA newspaper for politics?
As you can tell from my comment about “2 Dem senators”, I’ve already changed Warner flavors, at least mentally.:) For a state in transition like VA, good leadership is essential. Like you, I’m amazed at the repidity of the transition towards the Dems altho I was delighted that I got right my prediction about Webb. I really hope that the change will continue thru the whole political structure.
Thanks also for the info about Judy. Based on your appraisal I’ll take a deep breath and kick in, altho a 40,000 vote deficit strikes me as a enormous gap to make up. Unfortunately VA 10 has only a 7-8% AA component, so that CD is unlikely to have the boost that some others might have with Obama heading the ticket.
Re VA 02 I know that Dems have been trying to knock off Thelma for a while, albeit with no success. Hope this time is different.
The other race there that I continue to see mentioned is VA 05 with Perriello. He now has DCCC support as well as a district that is 22+% AA, which should help substantially. In all, VA seems to have more competitive races than most other states. Altho much smaller than NY, FL, or OH, VA has as many real possibilities for flipping CDs.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
http://www.mscode.com/free/sta…
Shows that if the current nominee were to withdraw, the state executive committee could appoint a nominee.
Here’s your chance, with greatly increased voter registrations and a hard-working progressive Democrat, Bill Gillespie. Bill can beat Jack, with your help.